The Prediction Markets

Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Minnesota US Senate 69%

Next is Yes at 55.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 10 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Minnesota US Senate
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota US Senate
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Minnesota US Senate
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi US Senate
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Minnesota Secretary of State, Mississippi Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Minnesota US Senate
  • Yes
  • Minnesota US Senate

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Minnesota US Senate for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?". Minnesota US Senate leads at 69%. Next is Yes at 55.5%. $13K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Minnesota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Minnesota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Mississippi Senate election. This market will resolve to "Mississippi" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Mississippi has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Minnesota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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