What are the odds of Kansas in Closest Senate Race??

Kansas is currently priced at 13.6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Iowa in Closest Senate Race??

Iowa is currently priced at 13.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Texas in Closest Senate Race??

Texas is currently priced at 11.9% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Maine in Closest Senate Race??

Maine is currently priced at 8.1% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Alaska in Closest Senate Race??

Alaska is currently priced at 7.7% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Michigan in Closest Senate Race??

Michigan is currently priced at 6.4% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Nebraska in Closest Senate Race??

Nebraska is currently priced at 6.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Idaho in Closest Senate Race??

Idaho is currently priced at 5.7% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of South Carolina in Closest Senate Race??

South Carolina is currently priced at 4.6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Florida (Special) in Closest Senate Race??

Florida (Special) is currently priced at 4.5% in prediction markets.

Closest Senate Race?

Closes: Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded: $37K
Venues: Polymarket
Prices updated: just now

What the markets expect

Kansas 13.6%

Next is Iowa at 13.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Kansas 13.6%Iowa 13.3%Texas 11.9%Maine 8.1%Alaska 7.7%30 others 45.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket

Outcome

Fair chance

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Best Yes price

Kansas

13.6%

15.5%

13.5% fair

14.9¢ bid, 16¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

16¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $625 (6.25x)

Kansas

13.6%

Polymarket 15.5%(13.5% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)

Polymarket

Contract: Kansas
Last price: 15.5%
Fair, margin removed: 13.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 16¢
Sell Yes: 14.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $625 (6.25x)
Volume: $8K

Trade this on Polymarket

Iowa

13.3%

15.2%

13.3% fair

14.1¢ bid, 16.3¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

16.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $613 (6.13x)

Iowa

13.3%

Polymarket 15.2%(13.3% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 16.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $613 (6.13x)

Polymarket

Contract: Iowa
Last price: 15.2%
Fair, margin removed: 13.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 16.3¢
Sell Yes: 14.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $613 (6.13x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Texas

11.9%

13.5%

11.8% fair

13¢ bid, 14¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

14¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Texas

11.9%

Polymarket 13.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)

Polymarket

Contract: Texas
Last price: 13.5%
Fair, margin removed: 11.8%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 14¢
Sell Yes: 13¢
$100 on Yes pays: $714 (7.14x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Maine

8.1%

9.2%

8.1% fair

8.6¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

9.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)

Maine

8.1%

Polymarket 9.2%(8.1% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Maine
Last price: 9.2%
Fair, margin removed: 8.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9.8¢
Sell Yes: 8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,020 (10.2x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Alaska

7.7%

8.8%

7.7% fair

8.7¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

8.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)

Alaska

7.7%

Polymarket 8.8%(7.7% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)

Polymarket

Contract: Alaska
Last price: 8.8%
Fair, margin removed: 7.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 8.9¢
Sell Yes: 8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,124 (11.2x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Michigan

6.4%

7.3%

6.4% fair

5.3¢ bid, 9.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

9.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)

Michigan

6.4%

Polymarket 7.3%(6.4% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Michigan
Last price: 7.3%
Fair, margin removed: 6.4%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9.2¢
Sell Yes: 5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,087 (10.9x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Nebraska

6.3%

7.2%

6.3% fair

5.4¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Nebraska

6.3%

Polymarket 7.2%(6.3% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Nebraska
Last price: 7.2%
Fair, margin removed: 6.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $942

Trade this on Polymarket

Idaho

5.7%

6.5%

5.7% fair

0.3¢ bid, 12.6¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

12.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $794 (7.94x)

Idaho

5.7%

Polymarket 6.5%(5.7% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)

Polymarket

Contract: Idaho
Last price: 6.5%
Fair, margin removed: 5.7%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 12.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $794 (7.94x)
Volume: $776

Trade this on Polymarket

South Carolina

4.6%

5.2%

4.6% fair

3.6¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

6.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

South Carolina

4.6%

Polymarket 5.2%(4.6% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: South Carolina
Last price: 5.2%
Fair, margin removed: 4.6%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.8¢
Sell Yes: 3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,471 (14.7x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

Florida (Special)

Polymarket: “Ohio (Special)”

4.5%

5.2%

4.5% fair

2.8¢ bid, 7.5¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

7.5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)

Florida (Special)

4.5%

Polymarket 5.2%(4.5% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ohio (Special)
Last price: 5.2%
Fair, margin removed: 4.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7.5¢
Sell Yes: 2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,333 (13.3x)
Volume: $895

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 25 more outcomes

Florida (Special)

2.9%

3.3%

2.9¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

3.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Florida (Special)

2.9%

Polymarket 3.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Florida (Special)
Last price: 3.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.6¢
Sell Yes: 2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,778 (27.8x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Minnesota

2.9%

3.3%

0.7¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

5.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)

Minnesota

2.9%

Polymarket 3.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: Minnesota
Last price: 3.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5.9¢
Sell Yes: 0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,695 (16.9x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

South Dakota

2.9%

3.3%

0.3¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

6.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)

South Dakota

2.9%

Polymarket 3.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)

Polymarket

Contract: South Dakota
Last price: 3.3%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6.3¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,587 (15.9x)
Volume: $629

Trade this on Polymarket

Louisiana

1.8%

2.1%

0.4¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

3.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)

Louisiana

1.8%

Polymarket 2.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Louisiana
Last price: 2.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 3.7¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,703 (27.0x)
Volume: $789

Trade this on Polymarket

Mississippi

1.8%

2.1%

1.2¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

2.9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)

Mississippi

1.8%

Polymarket 2.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Mississippi
Last price: 2.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2.9¢
Sell Yes: 1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,448 (34.5x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Arkansas

1.1%

1.2%

0.4¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Arkansas

1.1%

Polymarket 1.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Arkansas
Last price: 1.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

Montana

1.1%

0.2¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Montana

Polymarket 1.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Montana
Last price: 1.1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $472

Trade this on Polymarket

New Hampshire

1.2%

0.3¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

New Hampshire

Polymarket 1.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: New Hampshire
Last price: 1.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $415

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Kentucky

0.5%

0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Kentucky

0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Polymarket

Contract: Kentucky
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $12,500 (125x)
Volume: $239

Trade this on Polymarket

Wyoming

0.5%

0.2¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Wyoming

0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Polymarket

Contract: Wyoming
Last price: 0.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $12,500 (125x)
Volume: $220

Trade this on Polymarket

Alabama

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Alabama

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Alabama
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Colorado

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Colorado

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Colorado
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Delaware

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Delaware

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Delaware
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Georgia

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Georgia

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Georgia
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Illinois

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Illinois

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Illinois
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Massachusetts

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Massachusetts

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Massachusetts
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

New Jersey

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

New Jersey

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: New Jersey
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

New Mexico

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

New Mexico

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: New Mexico
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

North Carolina

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

North Carolina

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: North Carolina
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Oklahoma

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Oklahoma

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Oklahoma
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Oregon

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Oregon

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Oregon
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Rhode Island

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Rhode Island

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Rhode Island
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Tennessee

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Tennessee

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Tennessee
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Virginia

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Virginia

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: Virginia
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $224

Trade this on Polymarket

West Virginia

0.1%

0.2%

0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask

polled, 51s ago

0.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $50,000 (500x)

West Virginia

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)

Polymarket

Contract: West Virginia
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 0.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $50,000 (500x)
Volume: $230

Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Kansas
Iowa
Texas

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 50s ago

Volume: $37K
Liquidity: $540K
Outcomes listed: 35
Trading closes: Nov 4, 2026

Trade on Polymarket

Paper trade

Simulated: orders fill in full at the venue's best price, with no fees. Not real money and not advice. Your results

Big trades

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Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Closest Senate Race?". Kansas leads at 13.6%. Next is Iowa at 13.3%. $37K has traded across 35 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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