The Prediction Markets

CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Manny Rutinel
70.6%
Polymarket 70%(70.6% fair)polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manny Rutinel
Last price
70%
Fair, margin removed
70.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shannon Bird
27.7%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shannon Bird
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amie Baca-Oehlert
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amie Baca-Oehlert
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dave Young
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dave Young
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Szemler
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Szemler
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yadira Caraveo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yadira Caraveo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Manny Rutinel
  • Shannon Bird
  • Amie Baca-Oehlert

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "CO-08 Democratic Primary Winner". Manny Rutinel last traded at 70.6%. Next is Shannon Bird at 27.7%. $28K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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