The Prediction Markets

College Basketball (M): #1 Ranked Team on Nov 30 AP Poll

Closes
Jan 14, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Florida 31.5%

Next is Duke at 19.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Florida 31.5%Duke 19.1%Illinois 8.7%Michigan 7.1%Kansas 6.4%7 others 27.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Florida
31.5%
Kalshi 39.5%(31.5% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florida
Last price
39.5%
Fair, margin removed
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Duke
19.1%
Kalshi 24%(19.1% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duke
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
19.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Illinois
8.7%
Kalshi 11%(8.8% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Illinois
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan
7.1%
Kalshi 9%(7.2% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Kansas
6.4%
Kalshi 8%(6.4% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan St.
4.8%
Kalshi 6%(4.8% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan St.
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Arizona
4%
Kalshi 5%(4% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Arkansas
4%
Kalshi 5%(4% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arkansas
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$249
Trade this on Kalshi
Houston
4%
Kalshi 5%(4% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Houston
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
UConn
4%
Kalshi 5%(4% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
UConn
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Iowa St.
3.2%
Kalshi 4%(3.2% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iowa St.
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Louisville
3.2%
Kalshi 4%(3.2% fair)polled, 15s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louisville
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AP College Basketball Rankings

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Florida
  • Duke
  • Illinois

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "College Basketball (M): #1 Ranked Team on Nov 30 AP Poll". Florida leads at 31.5%. Next is Duke at 19.1%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 14, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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