The Prediction Markets

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$6.0M
Venues
Polymarket
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Iván Cepeda Castro
83%
Polymarket 84.5%(83% fair)polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iván Cepeda Castro
Last price
84.5%
Fair, margin removed
83%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$533K
Trade this on Polymarket
Abelardo de la Espriella
16%
Polymarket 16.3%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 16.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $610 (6.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abelardo de la Espriella
Last price
16.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
16.4¢
Sell Yes
16.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$610 (6.10x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Paloma Valencia
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paloma Valencia
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$594K
Trade this on Polymarket
Claudia López
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Claudia López
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$300K
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Quintero
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Quintero
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$257K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Luna Sánchez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Luna Sánchez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$283K
Trade this on Polymarket
Enrique Peñalosa
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Enrique Peñalosa
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$305K
Trade this on Polymarket
Germán Vargas Lleras
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germán Vargas Lleras
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$287K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gustavo Bolívar
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gustavo Bolívar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$229K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Daniel Oviedo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Daniel Oviedo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$157K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Juan Manuel Galán
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Manuel Galán
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$235K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Manuel Galán
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Carlos Pinzón
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$145K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luis Gilberto Murillo
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Gilberto Murillo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$298K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mauricio Cárdenas
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mauricio Cárdenas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$335K
Trade this on Polymarket
Roy Barreras
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roy Barreras
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$285K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sergio Fajardo
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Fajardo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$209K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vicky Dávila
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3828 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vicky Dávila
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$441K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Iván Cepeda Castro
  • Abelardo de la Espriella
  • Paloma Valencia

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?". Iván Cepeda Castro last traded at 83%. Next is Abelardo de la Espriella at 16%. $6.0M has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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