The Prediction Markets

Connecticut Governor Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.00M 91%

Next is Above 1.09M at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.00M
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00M
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.09M
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.09M
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.18M
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.18M
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.26M
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.26M
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.32M
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.32M
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
1.3M-1.4M
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3M-1.4M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.38M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.38M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Kalshi
1.2M-1.3M
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2M-1.3M
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.45M
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.45M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1M-1.2M
14.8%
Polymarket 14.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 15.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1M-1.2M
Last price
14.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.5¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$645 (6.45x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 1.51M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.51M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Kalshi
1M
9.3%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
1M
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1M-1.1M
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
1M-1.1M
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.4M-1.5M
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4M-1.5M
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5M-1.6M
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5M-1.6M
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$485
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6M+
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6M+
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Connecticut Secretary of the State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.00M
  • Above 1.09M
  • Above 1.18M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.00M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Connecticut Governor Election: Turnout". Above 1.00M leads at 91%. Next is Above 1.09M at 82%. $14K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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