The Prediction Markets

Connecticut presidential election winner?

Closes
Nov 7, 2029, in 36 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Democratic Party 94.5%

Next is Republican Party at 5.5%. The venues differ most on Democratic Party (Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 95%), a 3.0-point gap.

Democratic Party 94.5%Republican Party 5.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democratic Party
94.5%
Polymarket 92%(94% fair)polled, 5 min agoKalshi 95%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democratic Party
Last price
92%
Fair, margin removed
94%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic party
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95.1¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 93¢ and selling on Kalshi at 95¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Republican Party
5.5%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 5.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Party
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Republican party
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.4¢.

Indicative gap, prices are 5 min old: Democratic Party asks 93¢ on Polymarket and bids 95¢ on Kalshi (200 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi resolves on the party winning the most electoral votes in Connecticut; Polymarket resolves on the party of the candidate winning the most statewide popular votes, regardless of electoral vote distribution. These differ only if a faithless elector or a split allocation occurs, which is very unlikely in Connecticut.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results cannot be determined by Dec 31, 2029. Kalshi has no such fallback. The date is far past the election, so this is practically irrelevant.
  • Kalshi can resolve early after a consensus of media projections. Polymarket resolves once AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race, and falls back to certified results if they do not agree. The timing mechanics differ slightly, but the outcome is the same in ordinary scenarios.
  • Polymarket explicitly addresses nominee replacement and independent candidates, and the party is defined by the nominee. Kalshi only says 'the Democratic Party wins', so an unusual scenario such as a nominee replacement or a candidate with multiple party lines could be treated differently.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Connecticut Secretary of the State, United States Congress, Associated Press
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi resolves on the party winning the most electoral votes in Connecticut; Polymarket resolves on the party of the candidate winning the most statewide popular votes, regardless of electoral vote distribution. These differ only if a faithless elector or a split allocation occurs, which is very unlikely in Connecticut.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results cannot be determined by Dec 31, 2029. Kalshi has no such fallback. The date is far past the election, so this is practically irrelevant.
  • Kalshi can resolve early after a consensus of media projections. Polymarket resolves once AP, Fox News and NBC all call the race, and falls back to certified results if they do not agree. The timing mechanics differ slightly, but the outcome is the same in ordinary scenarios.
  • Polymarket explicitly addresses nominee replacement and independent candidates, and the party is defined by the nominee. Kalshi only says 'the Democratic Party wins', so an unusual scenario such as a nominee replacement or a candidate with multiple party lines could be treated differently.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democratic Party
  • Republican Party

Live prices for Democratic Party

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Kalshi

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Connecticut presidential election winner?". Democratic Party leads at 94.5%. Next is Republican Party at 5.5%. $5K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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