The Prediction Markets

Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Bert Chen 62.7%

Next is Debra Toporowski at 29.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Bert Chen 62.7%Debra Toporowski 29.9%Justin Douglas 6.9%James Chumsa 0.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bert Chen
62.7%
Polymarket 64%(62.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bert Chen
Last price
64%
Fair, margin removed
62.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$844
Trade this on Polymarket
Debra Toporowski
29.9%
Polymarket 30.5%(29.9% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Debra Toporowski
Last price
30.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Polymarket
Justin Douglas
6.9%
Polymarket 7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Douglas
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
James Chumsa
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Chumsa
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$712
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.bc.ca

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bert Chen
  • Debra Toporowski
  • Justin Douglas

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner". Bert Chen leads at 62.7%. Next is Debra Toporowski at 29.9%. $3K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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