The Prediction Markets

Czech National Bank rate decision in December

Closes
Dec 17, 2026, in 41 days
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Maintain current rate 93%

Next is No change at 58.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Maintain current rate
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
No change
58.7%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 57.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps increase
30.9%
Polymarket 29.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 36%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
29.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31.3¢
Sell Yes
27.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$319 (3.19x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike 1-25bps
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps increase
4.6%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cut 1-25bps
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps decrease
2.6%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps decrease
1.1%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cut more than 25bps
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike more than 25bps
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: banrep.gov.co, bcentral.cl
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Czech National Bank, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Maintain current rate
  • No change
  • 25 bps increase

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Maintain current rate for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Czech National Bank rate decision in December". Maintain current rate leads at 93%. Next is No change at 58.7%. $62K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 17, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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