The Prediction Markets

Delivery app downloads array index in November 2026

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 30 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
19 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 105 92%

Next is Above 100 at 91.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 19 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 105
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 105
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 110
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 115
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 115
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 120
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 130
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 130
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 135
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 135
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 145
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 145
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 19 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 105
  • Above 100
  • Above 110

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Delivery app downloads array index in November 2026". Above 105 leads at 92%. Next is Above 100 at 91.5%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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