The Prediction Markets

Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
6 h ago
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What the markets expect

Jon Ossoff 62%

Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Jon Ossoff 62%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18.2%Gavin Newsom 8.4%Josh Shapiro 5.9%Pete Buttigieg 3.1%Kamala Harris 2.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
62%
Polymarket 63%(62% fair)polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
63%
Fair, margin removed
62%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18.2%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin Newsom
8.4%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Shapiro
5.9%
Polymarket 6%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg
3.1%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Polymarket
Kamala Harris
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$263
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jon Ossoff
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
  • Gavin Newsom

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?". Jon Ossoff leads at 62%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 18.2%. $2K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. An option with no hourly odds value published in that period will not be considered. If two or more options are tied for the highest value, the tie will be broken in favor of the tied option with the higher value in the most recent earlier window in which their values differed. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the tied option whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve in favor of the outcome of the underlying market if it is a listed outcome, and otherwise to "Other". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the options in the "2028 Democratic Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/dem-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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