The Prediction Markets

Democratic Senate odds on October 23?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 18 hours
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

66% 87.8%

Next is 64-66% at 10.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

66% 87.8%64-66% 10.3%62-64% 0.9%58-60% 0.5%58% 0.3%60-62% 0.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
66%
87.8%
Polymarket 90%(87.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
66%
Last price
90%
Fair, margin removed
87.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
64-66%
10.3%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
64-66%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
62-64%
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
62-64%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
58-60%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
58-60%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
58%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
58%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Polymarket
60-62%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-62%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 66%
  • 64-66%
  • 62-64%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Democratic Senate odds on October 23?". 66% leads at 87.8%. Next is 64-66% at 10.3%. $16K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the range that contains the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "Senate Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for the Democratic Party for the specified window, the Democratic Party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, the Democratic Party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing the Democratic Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the most recent hourly odds value published for the Democratic Party before that point. If no hourly odds value has been published for the Democratic Party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market may remain open until October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and will resolve according to the first window after the specified window for which an hourly odds value is published for the Democratic Party. If no such value is published by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest listed range. If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to the highest listed range if the Democratic Party is the outcome of the underlying market, and otherwise to the lowest listed range. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "Senate Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-control-2026.html and on the Democratic Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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