The Prediction Markets

Dems' best tossup Senate race?

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Texas 26.4%

Next is Michigan at 24.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Texas 26.4%Michigan 24.2%Ohio 22.9%Maine 15.5%Alaska 10%Iowa 1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Texas
26.4%
Polymarket 29%(26.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Texas
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
26.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michigan
24.2%
Polymarket 26.5%(24.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michigan
Last price
26.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ohio
22.9%
Polymarket 25.2%(22.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $321 (3.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ohio
Last price
25.2%
Fair, margin removed
22.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31.2¢
Sell Yes
19.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$321 (3.21x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Polymarket
Maine
15.5%
Polymarket 17%(15.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alaska
10%
Polymarket 11%(10% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alaska
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iowa
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iowa
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Texas
  • Michigan
  • Ohio

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Dems' best tossup Senate race?". Texas leads at 26.4%. Next is Michigan at 24.2%. $12K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share. If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order. In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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