The Prediction Markets

Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?

Closed
Mar 3, 2026
Traded
$66K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 217 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5209 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 217 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?". Yes last traded at 100%. $66K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 3, 2026.

Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to “Dems” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary (total canvass votes in the primary) is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary. This market will resolve to “GOP” if the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the first-round total vote count in the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. If the first-round total vote count in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the either relevant election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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