The Prediction Markets

Denmark Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Closed
Mar 24, 2026
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 24, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 213 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Social Democrats 10–15%
99.9%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5116 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democrats 10–15%
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Social Democrats <5%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5116 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democrats <5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Social Democrats 5–10%
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5116 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democrats 5–10%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Social Democrats 15%+
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5116 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democrats 15%+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 213 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$964
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Social Democrats 10–15%
  • Social Democrats <5%
  • Social Democrats 5–10%

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Denmark Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory". Social Democrats 10–15% last traded at 99.9%. Next is Social Democrats <5% at 0.1%. $32K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 24, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. Denmark uses a proportional representation electoral system in which voters cast a single vote that may be given either to a specific candidate or to a political party list, with seats allocated proportionally based on the total votes received by each party. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election in Denmark proper. This market will resolve solely based on the total number of valid votes received by each political party nationwide in this election, based solely on the results from Denmark proper, excluding the results and eligible voter counts from Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Votes cast for individual candidates will count toward the total of the respective candidate’s political party. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes nationwide in this election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Danish government sources such as the Ministry of Interior and Health (https://www.valg.im.dk/) and Statistics Denmark (https://www.dst.dk/en).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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