The Prediction Markets

Derwent Valley Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Michelle Dracoulis 61.5%

Next is Casey Farrell at 46%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Michelle Dracoulis
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Dracoulis
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Casey Farrell
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Casey Farrell
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dee Dee Cavanaugh
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dee Dee Cavanaugh
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Kareem Jubran
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kareem Jubran
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Abby McKibben
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abby McKibben
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Jessop
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Jessop
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$923
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Judge
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Judge
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul Gibson
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Gibson
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Kalshi
Wayne Hampton Holland III
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wayne Hampton Holland III
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Marshall Callaghan
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marshall Callaghan
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Robert Clarizio
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Clarizio
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jess Burns
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jess Burns
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket
James Randall
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Randall
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission, Ventura County Clerk-Recorder and Registrar of Voters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michelle Dracoulis
  • Casey Farrell
  • Dee Dee Cavanaugh

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Michelle Dracoulis for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Derwent Valley Mayoral Election Winner". Michelle Dracoulis leads at 61.5%. Next is Casey Farrell at 46%. $20K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Derwent Valley Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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