Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above $6.265 99.5%
Next is Above $6.270 at 99.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above $6.26599.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.26599.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.265
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.265
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.265
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.27099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.27099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.270
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.270
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.270
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.27599.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.27599.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.275
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.275
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.275
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.28099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.28099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.280
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.280
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.280
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.28599.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.28599.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.285
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.285
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.285
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.29099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.29099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.290
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.290
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.290
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.29599.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.29599.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.295
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.295
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.295
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.30099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.30099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.300
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.300
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.300
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.30599.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.30599.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.305
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.305
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.305
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above $6.31099.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.31099.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.310
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.310
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.310
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Above $6.31599%99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.31599%Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.315
99%
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.315
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.315
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $500
Above $6.32099%99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askAbove $6.32099%Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Above $6.320
99%
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Above $6.320
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.320
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1K
Above $6.32598%98%98¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 56s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above $6.32598%Kalshi 98%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $6.325
98%
98%
98¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above $6.325
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.325
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above $6.33057%57%57¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 56s ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Above $6.33057%Kalshi 57%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Above $6.330
57%
57%
57¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Above $6.330
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.330
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above $6.33513%13%12¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 56s ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Above $6.33513%Kalshi 13%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Above $6.335
13%
13%
12¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Above $6.335
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.335
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Above $6.3401%1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 56s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above $6.3401%Kalshi 1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above $6.340
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above $6.340
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.340
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4
Above $6.3450.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 56s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above $6.3450.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.345
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.345
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.345
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.3500.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 56s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above $6.3500.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.350
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.350
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.350
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.3550.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 56s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above $6.3550.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.355
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.355
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.355
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.3600.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 56s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above $6.3600.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.360
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.360
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.360
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.3650.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 56s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above $6.3650.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.365
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above $6.365
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above $6.365
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above $6.265
- Above $6.270
- Above $6.275
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Diesel prices tomorrow". Above $6.265 leads at 99.5%. Next is Above $6.270 at 99.5%. $6K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More economics markets
See all economics markets- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?Yes94.2%$31.5M traded
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Fed maintains rate91%$14.8M traded
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?Exactly 0 cuts93.8%$11.0M traded
- How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?115.01 or above39.1%$9.3M traded
- Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA57%$8.9M traded
- S&P close price end of 2026?7,800 to 7,999.9924%$8.0M traded