The Prediction Markets

Disney+ app downloads in November 2026

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 33 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 97 71%

Next is Above 123 at 33%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 97
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 97
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$828
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 123
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 123
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 114
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 114
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 131.5
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 131.5
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140.5
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140.5
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 151
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 151
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 163
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 163
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 191.5
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 191.5
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 97
  • Above 123
  • Above 114

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Disney+ app downloads in November 2026". Above 97 leads at 71%. Next is Above 123 at 33%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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