Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Yes 5%
Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Yes5%5%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Yes5%Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Yes
5%
5%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Yes
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Yes
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Cover Yes and No across venues
Loading every outcome’s book…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "DOJ criminally charges NVIDIA by December 31?". Yes leads at 5%. $2K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Justice formally charges, files a criminal complaint against, or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of NVIDIA Corporation or any of its subsidiaries or successors between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A federal criminal complaint, information, or indictment naming NVIDIA Corporation or any of its subsidiaries or successors as a defendant will qualify. Charges filed under seal will qualify only once they are unsealed or publicly announced by the US federal government within this market's timeframe, regardless of when they were originally filed. Charges under any federal criminal statute will qualify (for example, criminal antitrust violations under the Sherman Act, export-control or sanctions violations, violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), or fraud). Civil enforcement actions, including civil FARA or civil antitrust actions, will not qualify. A qualifying charge need not result in a conviction. This market will resolve to "Yes" even if the charge is later dismissed, reduced, or resolved through a deferred prosecution agreement, so long as it was filed or announced by the date specified above. Charges solely against individuals, including NVIDIA executives or Alice Huang, investigations, subpoenas, sanctions designations, and administrative export-control penalties will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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