The Prediction Markets

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$226K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
60-79
46.6%
Polymarket 47.9%(46.5% fair)polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
47.9%
Fair, margin removed
46.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
80-99
44.9%
Polymarket 46.2%(44.9% fair)polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 48.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
46.2%
Fair, margin removed
44.9%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
48.3¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$207 (2.07x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
100-119
4.3%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
120-139
2.7%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
200+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4230 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: truthsocial.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 60-79
  • 80-99
  • 100-119

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?". 60-79 last traded at 46.6%. Next is 80-99 at 44.9%. $226K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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