The Prediction Markets

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 17 - November 24, 2026?

Starts in 2 daysKickoff
Traded
$290K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

60-79 77.9%

Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 33%. The venues differ most on 60-79 (Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 99%), a 85-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 12 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
60-79Arb
77.9%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 99%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$659
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
60-79
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 16¢ and selling on Kalshi at 99¢ nets 8300 bps before fees.

Before Apr 1, 2027
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$622
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
200+
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$822
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 12 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 12 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
20-39
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Polymarket
80-99Arb
4.8%
Polymarket 16%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
80-99
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

100-119Arb
3.9%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
100-119
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

120-139Arb
2.9%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
120-139
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

Show 7 more outcomes
140-159Arb
2.6%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$346
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
140-159
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

160-179Arb
2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
160-179
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4.3¢ nets 330 bps before fees.

180-199Arb
1.8%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
180-199
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.7¢ nets 270 bps before fees.

20
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$372
Trade this on Polymarket
60
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
60
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
200-219
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
200-219
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
220+
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
220+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 60-79 on Polymarket at 16¢, sell on Kalshi at 99¢ (8300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 24, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: truthsocial.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Roll Call, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 24, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 2:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 60-79
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 2027

Live prices for 60-79

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 17 - November 24, 2026?". 60-79 leads at 77.9%. Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 33%. $290K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between November 17, 12:00 PM ET and November 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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