The Prediction Markets

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?

Starts in 44 hKickoff
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

200+ 59%

Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 52.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
200+
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Apr 1, 2027
52.5%
Kalshi 52.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Kalshi
160-179
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$812
Trade this on Polymarket
120-139
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
100-119
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
80-99
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
20
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
20-39
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: truthsocial.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 200+
  • Before Apr 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 200+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?". 200+ leads at 59%. Next is Before Apr 1, 2027 at 52.5%. $30K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between November 6, 12:00 PM ET and November 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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