The Prediction Markets

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$213K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

200+ 82%

Next is 240 at 81%. The venues differ most on 180-199 (Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 13-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
200+
82%
Polymarket 82%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
240
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
240
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
220-240
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
220-240
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
180-199Arb
4.4%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 17s agoKalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
180-199
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 1200 bps before fees.

200-219
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
200-219
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
160-179Arb
1.3%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 17s agoKalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
160-179
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

140-159
1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 17s agoKalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
140-159
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 3 more outcomes
100
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
100
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
120-139
0.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17s agoKalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
120-139
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

100-119
0.8%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 17s agoKalshi 1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
100-119
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 180-199 on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 13¢ (1200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: truthsocial.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Roll Call, Fox News, MSNBC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 200+
  • 240
  • Before Apr 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 200+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?". 200+ leads at 82%. Next is 240 at 81%. $213K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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