The Prediction Markets

eBay gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027

Closes
Aug 26, 2027, in 10 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above $23.5 billion 87%

Next is Above $23.6 billion at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $23.5 billion
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $23.5 billion
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $23.6 billion
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $23.6 billion
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $23.7 billion
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $23.7 billion
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $23.8 billion
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $23.8 billion
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $23.9 billion
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $23.9 billion
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $24 billion
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $24 billion
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $24.1 billion
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $24.1 billion
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $24.2 billion
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $24.2 billion
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $24.3 billion
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $24.3 billion
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $23.5 billion
  • Above $23.6 billion
  • Above $23.7 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "eBay gross merchandise volume in Q1 2027". Above $23.5 billion leads at 87%. Next is Above $23.6 billion at 82%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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