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Best ask
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What the markets expect
1000+ 38.2%
Next is 880-919 at 11.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
1000+38.2%43.5%38.2% fair30¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 58s ago57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)1000+38.2%Polymarket 43.5%(38.2% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
1000+
38.2%
43.5%
38.2% fair
30¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
1000+
38.2%
Polymarket 43.5%(38.2% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1000+
- Last price
- 43.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 38.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $38
880-91911.8%13.5%11.8% fair6¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 58s ago21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)880-91911.8%Polymarket 13.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
880-919
11.8%
13.5%
11.8% fair
6¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
880-919
11.8%
Polymarket 13.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 880-919
- Last price
- 13.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 11.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $18
960-99910.1%11.5%10.1% fair11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 58s ago12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)960-99910.1%Polymarket 11.5%(10.1% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
960-999
10.1%
11.5%
10.1% fair
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
960-999
10.1%
Polymarket 11.5%(10.1% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 960-999
- Last price
- 11.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $28
840-8799.2%10.5%9.2% fair10¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 58s ago11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)840-8799.2%Polymarket 10.5%(9.2% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
840-879
9.2%
10.5%
9.2% fair
10¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
840-879
9.2%
Polymarket 10.5%(9.2% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 840-879
- Last price
- 10.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $18
920-9597.5%8.5%7.5% fair8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 58s ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)920-9597.5%Polymarket 8.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
920-959
7.5%
8.5%
7.5% fair
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
920-959
7.5%
Polymarket 8.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 920-959
- Last price
- 8.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $18
800-8394%4.5%3.9% fair3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 58s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)800-8394%Polymarket 4.5%(3.9% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
800-839
4%
4.5%
3.9% fair
3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
800-839
4%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.9% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 800-839
- Last price
- 4.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $18
780-7992.1%2.4%2¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 58s ago2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)780-7992.1%Polymarket 2.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
780-799
2.1%
2.4%
2¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
780-799
2.1%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 780-799
- Last price
- 2.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $135
740-7591.9%2.2%0.3¢ bid, 4.1¢ askpolled, 58s ago4.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)740-7591.9%Polymarket 2.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
740-759
1.9%
2.2%
0.3¢ bid, 4.1¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
740-759
1.9%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 740-759
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,439 (24.4x)
- Volume
- $133
760-7791.6%1.8%1¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 58s ago2.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)760-7791.6%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
760-779
1.6%
1.8%
1¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
760-779
1.6%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 760-779
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $118
720-7391.1%1.2%0.2¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)720-7391.1%Polymarket 1.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
720-739
1.1%
1.2%
0.2¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
720-739
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 720-739
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $118
Show 36 more outcomesHide 36 outcomes
700-7191%1.1%0.2¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 58s ago2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)700-7191%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
700-719
1%
1.1%
0.2¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
700-719
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 700-719
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $18
680-6990.9%1%0.2¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 58s ago1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)680-6990.9%Polymarket 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
680-699
0.9%
1%
0.2¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
680-699
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 680-699
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $18
660-6790.8%1%0.2¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 58s ago1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)660-6790.8%Polymarket 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
660-679
0.8%
1%
0.2¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
660-679
0.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 660-679
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $18
620-6390.7%0.8%0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 58s ago1.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)620-6390.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
620-639
0.7%
0.8%
0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
620-639
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 620-639
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $18
640-6590.7%0.9%0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 58s ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)640-6590.7%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
640-659
0.7%
0.9%
0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
640-659
0.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 640-659
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $18
580-5990.6%0.7%0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 58s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)580-5990.6%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
580-599
0.6%
0.7%
0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
580-599
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 580-599
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $18
600-6190.6%0.7%0.1¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago1.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)600-6190.6%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
600-619
0.6%
0.7%
0.1¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
600-619
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 600-619
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $18
520-5390.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 58s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)520-5390.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
520-539
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
520-539
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 520-539
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $18
540-5590.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 58s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)540-5590.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
540-559
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
540-559
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 540-559
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $18
560-5790.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 58s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)560-5790.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
560-579
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
560-579
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 560-579
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $18
420-4390.4%0.4%0.1¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)420-4390.4%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
420-439
0.4%
0.4%
0.1¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
420-439
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 420-439
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $18
440-4590.4%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)440-4590.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
440-459
0.4%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
440-459
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 440-459
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $18
460-4790.4%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)460-4790.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
460-479
0.4%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
460-479
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 460-479
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $18
480-4990.4%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)480-4990.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
480-499
0.4%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
480-499
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 480-499
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $18
500-5190.4%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)500-5190.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
500-519
0.4%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
500-519
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 500-519
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $18
320-3390.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)320-3390.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
320-339
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
320-339
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 320-339
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $18
340-3590.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)340-3590.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
340-359
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
340-359
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 340-359
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $18
360-3790.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)360-3790.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
360-379
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
360-379
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 360-379
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $18
380-3990.3%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)380-3990.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
380-399
0.3%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
380-399
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 380-399
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $18
400-4190.3%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)400-4190.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
400-419
0.3%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
400-419
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 400-419
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $18
200.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)200.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
20
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
20
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
180-1990.2%0.2%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)180-1990.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
180-199
0.2%
0.2%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
180-199
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 180-199
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $18
220-2390.2%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)220-2390.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
220-239
0.2%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
220-239
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 220-239
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $18
240-2590.2%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)240-2590.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
240-259
0.2%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
240-259
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 240-259
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $18
260-2790.2%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)260-2790.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
260-279
0.2%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
260-279
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 260-279
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $18
280-2990.2%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)280-2990.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
280-299
0.2%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
280-299
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 280-299
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $18
300-3190.2%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)300-3190.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
300-319
0.2%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
300-319
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 300-319
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $18
20-390.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)20-390.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
20-39
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
20-39
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20-39
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $229
60-790.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)60-790.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
60-79
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
60-79
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 60-79
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
80-990.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)80-990.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
80-99
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
80-99
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80-99
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
100-1190.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)100-1190.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
100-119
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
100-119
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100-119
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
120-1390.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)120-1390.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
120-139
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
120-139
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 120-139
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
140-1590.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)140-1590.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
140-159
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
140-159
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 140-159
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
160-1790.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)160-1790.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
160-179
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
160-179
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 160-179
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
200-2190.1%0.2%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)200-2190.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
200-219
0.1%
0.2%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
200-219
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 200-219
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18
40-590%0.1%No order bookpolled, 58s agoNo ask40-590%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 58s ago
40-59
0%
0.1%
No order book
polled, 58s ago
No ask
40-59
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 58s ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- 40-59
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $229
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 1000+
- 880-919
- 960-999
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Elon Musk # tweets in November 2026?". 1000+ leads at 38.2%. Next is 880-919 at 11.8%. $2K has traded across 46 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of November 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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