The Prediction Markets

Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$173K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

300-319 12.1%

Next is 280-299 at 11.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

300-319 12.1%280-299 11.4%320-339 11.4%260-279 10.7%240-259 9.9%24 others 44.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
300-319
12.1%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
300-319
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
280-299
11.4%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
280-299
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
320-339
11.4%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
320-339
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
260-279
10.7%
Polymarket 10.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
260-279
Last price
10.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
10.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
240-259
9.9%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
240-259
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
340-359
8.4%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
340-359
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
220-239
6.7%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
220-239
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
360-379
6.4%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
360-379
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
380-399
4.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
380-399
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
200-219
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
200-219
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 19 more outcomes
400-419
3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
400-419
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
420-439
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
420-439
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
440-459
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
440-459
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
460-479
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
460-479
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
480-499
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
480-499
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
500-519
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
500-519
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
100-119
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
120-139
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
520-539
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
520-539
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
540-559
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
540-559
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
80-99
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
560-579
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
560-579
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
580+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
580+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
20-39
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 300-319
  • 280-299
  • 320-339

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?". 300-319 leads at 12.1%. Next is 280-299 at 11.4%. $173K has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 3 12:00 PM ET to November 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets