The Prediction Markets

Estonia parliamentary election winner?

Starts in 122 daysKickoff
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Isamaa 40.7%

Next is Centre Party at 35.7%. The venues differ most on Reform Party (Polymarket 4%, Kalshi 9%), a 5.0-point gap.

Isamaa 40.7%Centre Party 35.7%Social Democratic Party 11.8%Reform Party 4.9%EKRE 4.3%2 others 2.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Isamaa
40.7%
Polymarket 42%(41% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 46%(40.8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isamaa
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isamaa
Last price
46%
Fair, margin removed
40.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 39¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 46¢.

Centre Party
35.7%
Polymarket 37%(36.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 40%(35.5% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Centre Party
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
36.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Centre Party
Last price
40%
Fair, margin removed
35.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 35¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 39¢.

Social Democratic Party
11.8%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%(8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democratic Party
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16.9¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$592 (5.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Social Democrats
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Reform Party
4.9%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%(8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reform Party
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$905
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Reform Party
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

EKRE
4.3%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
EKRE
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$622
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
EKRE
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Parempoolsed
2.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parempoolsed
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Polymarket
Eesti 200
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eesti 200
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 7 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by Dec 31, 2027; Kalshi has no such fallback in the text shown.
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket also uses credible reporting consensus, with the Estonian State Electoral Office as the tiebreaker for ambiguity. Both are unlikely to disagree on seat winner.
  • Tie-break: both use vote share after seats; Polymarket adds an alphabetical tiebreak if votes also tie, Kalshi does not specify this. The tie is practically impossible.
  • Polymarket lists Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed, which have no Kalshi counterpart, so they are not linked.
  • Polymarket has merger, joint-list and split rules for listed parties; Kalshi says the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance with the most seats and does not address mergers or splits. A pre-election merger or joint list could pay a linked outcome differently.
  • Kalshi's winner definition includes coalitions or alliances while Polymarket maps a joint list to one listed party by rule. This is an edge case for joint lists.
  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 7, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Mar 6, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Estonian National Electoral Committee
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by Dec 31, 2027; Kalshi has no such fallback in the text shown.
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket also uses credible reporting consensus, with the Estonian State Electoral Office as the tiebreaker for ambiguity. Both are unlikely to disagree on seat winner.
  • Tie-break: both use vote share after seats; Polymarket adds an alphabetical tiebreak if votes also tie, Kalshi does not specify this. The tie is practically impossible.
  • Polymarket lists Eesti 200 and Parempoolsed, which have no Kalshi counterpart, so they are not linked.
  • Polymarket has merger, joint-list and split rules for listed parties; Kalshi says the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance with the most seats and does not address mergers or splits. A pre-election merger or joint list could pay a linked outcome differently.
  • Kalshi's winner definition includes coalitions or alliances while Polymarket maps a joint list to one listed party by rule. This is an edge case for joint lists.
  • Trading closes Mar 7, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Mar 6, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Isamaa
  • Centre Party
  • Social Democratic Party

Live prices for Isamaa

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Estonia parliamentary election winner?". Isamaa leads at 40.7%. Next is Centre Party at 35.7%. $11K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 6, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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