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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 71.5%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 60.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds71.5%71.5%50¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed93¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $108 (1.08x)O/U 0.5 Rounds71.5%Polymarket 71.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
71.5%
71.5%
50¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
93¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 71.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds60.5%60.5%50¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)O/U 1.5 Rounds60.5%Polymarket 60.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
60.5%
60.5%
50¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 60.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds50.5%50.5%49¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed52¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $192 (1.92x)O/U 2.5 Rounds50.5%Polymarket 50.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
50.5%
50.5%
49¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
52¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches47.5%47.5%47¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches47.5%Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches
47.5%
47.5%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $14K
Fight won by KO/TKO?44.5%44.5%40¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Fight won by KO/TKO?44.5%Polymarket 44.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
44.5%
44.5%
40¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Ends before Round 3?44%44%42¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Ends before Round 3?44%Polymarket 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Ends before Round 3?
44%
44%
42¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Ends before Round 3?
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
Fight to Go the Distance?44%44%42¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Fight to Go the Distance?44%Polymarket 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
44%
44%
42¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest43.5%Not listed43.5%41¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 2 min ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Decision / Draw / No Contest43.5%Kalshi 43.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
43.5%
Not listed
43.5%
41¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
43.5%
Kalshi 43.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Decision / Draw / No Contest
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
Decision or Draw43.5%43.5%37¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Decision or Draw43.5%Polymarket 43.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
43.5%
43.5%
37¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by decision?42.5%42.5%37¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Fight won by decision?42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by decision?
42.5%
42.5%
37¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by decision?
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Sanches to win by KO/TKO?32.5%32.5%28¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Sanches to win by KO/TKO?32.5%Polymarket 32.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Sanches to win by KO/TKO?
32.5%
32.5%
28¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Sanches to win by KO/TKO?
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Elder to win by KO/TKO?29%29%10¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Elder to win by KO/TKO?29%Polymarket 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Elder to win by KO/TKO?
29%
29%
10¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Elder to win by KO/TKO?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Sanches in Round 129%29%8¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Sanches in Round 129%Polymarket 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 1
29%
29%
8¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 1
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches in Round 1
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 228.5%28.5%7¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Sanches in Round 228.5%Polymarket 28.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 2
28.5%
28.5%
7¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 2
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches in Round 2
- Last price
- 28.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by submission?27%27%6¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Fight won by submission?27%Polymarket 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by submission?
27%
27%
6¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by submission?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Elder in Round 126.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Elder in Round 126.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 1
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder in Round 1
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 226.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Elder in Round 226.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 2
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder in Round 2
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Elder in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Sanches in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Ends before Round 2?23%23%21¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Ends before Round 2?23%Polymarket 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Ends before Round 2?
23%
23%
21¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Ends before Round 2?
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 114%Not listed14%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 2 min ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Samuel Sanches to win in Round 114%Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 1
14%
Not listed
14%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 1
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Sanches to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $203
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 210.5%Not listed10.5%9¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 2 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Samuel Sanches to win in Round 210.5%Kalshi 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 2
10.5%
Not listed
10.5%
9¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 2
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Sanches to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Evan Elder to win in Round 110%Not listed10%7¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 2 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Evan Elder to win in Round 110%Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Evan Elder to win in Round 1
10%
Not listed
10%
7¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Evan Elder to win in Round 1
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan Elder to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $11
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 39%Not listed9%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Samuel Sanches to win in Round 39%Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 3
9%
Not listed
9%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Samuel Sanches to win in Round 3
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Sanches to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $15
Evan Elder to win in Round 27%Not listed7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 2 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Evan Elder to win in Round 27%Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Evan Elder to win in Round 2
7%
Not listed
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Evan Elder to win in Round 2
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan Elder to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Evan Elder to win in Round 37%Not listed7%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 2 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Evan Elder to win in Round 37%Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Evan Elder to win in Round 3
7%
Not listed
7%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Evan Elder to win in Round 3
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan Elder to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $751
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches: Round of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 71.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 60.5%. $16K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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