The Prediction Markets

ExxonMobil Credit Card Spend in October

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 15 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 96 96%

Next is Above 100 at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 96
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 96
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 102
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 102
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 104
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 104
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 106
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 106
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$485
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 108
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 108
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 112
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 112
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 96
  • Above 100
  • Above 102

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "ExxonMobil Credit Card Spend in October". Above 96 leads at 96%. Next is Above 100 at 89%. $5K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets