The Prediction Markets

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

Closes
Nov 5, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$267K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 40.9%

Next is Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems at 13.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 40.9%Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 13.6%Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps 10.1%Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps 8.6%Lula, Eizenkot, Dems 8.3%7 others 18.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems
40.9%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$212K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems
13.6%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps
10.1%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps
8.6%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems
8.3%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolsonaro, Bennett, Dems
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula, Netanyahu, Reps
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula, Netanyahu, Reps
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula, Bennett, Dems
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula, Netanyahu, Reps
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula, Eizenkot, Reps
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$563
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula, Netanyahu, Reps
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula, Bennett, Reps
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolsonaro, Bennett, Reps
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems
  • Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems
  • Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo". Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems leads at 40.9%. Next is Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems at 13.6%. $267K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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