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What the markets expect
Hou Yifan 93.5%
Next is Zhu Jiner at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Hou Yifan93.5%93.5%89¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, just now98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Hou Yifan93.5%Kalshi 93.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Hou Yifan
93.5%
93.5%
89¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, just now
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Hou Yifan
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hou Yifan
- Last price
- 93.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Zhu Jiner88%88%85¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, just now93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Zhu Jiner88%Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Zhu Jiner
88%
88%
85¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, just now
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Zhu Jiner
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zhu Jiner
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $205
Ju Wenjun80%80%80¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Ju Wenjun80%Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Ju Wenjun
80%
80%
80¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Ju Wenjun
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ju Wenjun
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $205
Aleksandra Goryachkina63%63%62¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, just now70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Aleksandra Goryachkina63%Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Aleksandra Goryachkina
63%
63%
62¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, just now
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Aleksandra Goryachkina
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aleksandra Goryachkina
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $355
Bibisara Assaubayeva56%56%54¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, just now62¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Bibisara Assaubayeva56%Kalshi 56%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Bibisara Assaubayeva
56%
56%
54¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, just now
62¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Bibisara Assaubayeva
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bibisara Assaubayeva
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
- Volume
- $414
Lei Tingjie48%48%41¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, just now49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Lei Tingjie48%Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Lei Tingjie
48%
48%
41¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, just now
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Lei Tingjie
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lei Tingjie
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $600
Tan Zhongyi21.5%21.5%17¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, just now26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Tan Zhongyi21.5%Kalshi 21.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Tan Zhongyi
21.5%
21.5%
17¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, just now
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Tan Zhongyi
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tan Zhongyi
- Last price
- 21.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
Anna Muzychuk11.5%11.5%7¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, just now16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Anna Muzychuk11.5%Kalshi 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Anna Muzychuk
11.5%
11.5%
7¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, just now
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Anna Muzychuk
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anna Muzychuk
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Koneru Humpy7.5%7.5%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Koneru Humpy7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Koneru Humpy
7.5%
7.5%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Koneru Humpy
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Koneru Humpy
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Polina Shuvalova5.5%5.5%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, just now10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Polina Shuvalova5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polina Shuvalova
5.5%
5.5%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polina Shuvalova
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Polina Shuvalova
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Kateryna Lagno4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Kateryna Lagno4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kateryna Lagno
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kateryna Lagno
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kateryna Lagno
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Divya Deshmukh3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Divya Deshmukh3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Divya Deshmukh
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Divya Deshmukh
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Divya Deshmukh
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Alexandra Kosteniuk3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandra Kosteniuk
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Alice Lee3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Alice Lee3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alice Lee
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alice Lee
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alice Lee
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Alina Kashlinskaya3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Alina Kashlinskaya3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alina Kashlinskaya
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alina Kashlinskaya
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alina Kashlinskaya
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Anastasiia Hnatyshyn3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Mariya Muzychuk3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Mariya Muzychuk3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Mariya Muzychuk
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Mariya Muzychuk
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mariya Muzychuk
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Nana Dzagnidze3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Nana Dzagnidze3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nana Dzagnidze
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nana Dzagnidze
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nana Dzagnidze
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Nino Batsiashvili3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Nino Batsiashvili3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nino Batsiashvili
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nino Batsiashvili
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nino Batsiashvili
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Song Yuxin3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Song Yuxin3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Song Yuxin
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Song Yuxin
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Song Yuxin
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Hou Yifan
- Zhu Jiner
- Ju Wenjun
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in January 2027". Hou Yifan leads at 93.5%. Next is Zhu Jiner at 88%. $2K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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