The Prediction Markets

First Solar module volume sold in Q1 2027

Closes
Nov 28, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 2400 mw 93%

Next is Above 2600 mw at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 2400 mw
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2400 mw
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2600 mw
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2600 mw
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2800 mw
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2800 mw
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$678
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3200 mw
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3200 mw
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3000 mw
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3000 mw
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3400 mw
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3400 mw
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3600 mw
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3600 mw
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3800 mw
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3800 mw
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4000 mw
23.5%
Kalshi 23.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4000 mw
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4200 mw
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4200 mw
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4400 mw
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4400 mw
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2400 mw
  • Above 2600 mw
  • Above 2800 mw

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "First Solar module volume sold in Q1 2027". Above 2400 mw leads at 93%. Next is Above 2600 mw at 89%. $6K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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