The Prediction Markets

Fitness Centers Ad Spend in October

Closes
Nov 6, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$62K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 30 99%

Next is Above 50 at 98.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 30
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 70
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 110
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 120
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 125
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 125
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 115
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 115
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 130
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 130
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 135
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 135
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 155
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 155
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 30
  • Above 50
  • Above 70

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fitness Centers Ad Spend in October". Above 30 leads at 99%. Next is Above 50 at 98.5%. $62K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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