The Prediction Markets

Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$144K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Alexander Vindman
95.2%
Polymarket 95.9%(95.2% fair)polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Vindman
Last price
95.9%
Fair, margin removed
95.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
95.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Angie Nixon
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angie Nixon
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jared Moskowitz
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jared Moskowitz
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alan Grayson
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alan Grayson
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Weil
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Weil
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlie Crist
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlie Crist
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jennifer Jenkins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jennifer Jenkins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joey Atkins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joey Atkins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alexander Vindman
  • Angie Nixon
  • Jared Moskowitz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Florida Democratic Senate Primary Winner". Alexander Vindman last traded at 95.2%. Next is Angie Nixon at 1.4%. $144K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Aug 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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