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What the markets expect
Above 4.0950 96.5%
Next is Above 4.0850 at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 4.095096.5%96.5%96¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 52s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Above 4.095096.5%Kalshi 96.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.0950
96.5%
96.5%
96¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.0950
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0950
- Last price
- 96.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
Above 4.085095%95%91¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 52s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.085095%Kalshi 95%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0850
95%
95%
91¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0850
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0850
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.100095%95%93¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 52s ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Above 4.100095%Kalshi 95%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 4.1000
95%
95%
93¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Above 4.1000
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1000
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Above 4.090094.5%94.5%90¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 52s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.090094.5%Kalshi 94.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0900
94.5%
94.5%
90¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0900
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0900
- Last price
- 94.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.105091.5%91.5%89¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 52s ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 4.105091.5%Kalshi 91.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 4.1050
91.5%
91.5%
89¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 4.1050
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1050
- Last price
- 91.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Above 4.120087%87%63¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 52s ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Above 4.120087%Kalshi 87%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.1200
87%
87%
63¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.1200
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1200
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
Above 4.110083%83%73¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 52s ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 4.110083%Kalshi 83%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.1100
83%
83%
73¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.1100
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1100
- Last price
- 83%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Above 4.115081%81%70¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 52s ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Above 4.115081%Kalshi 81%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.1150
81%
81%
70¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.1150
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1150
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.125067%67%48¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 52s ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Above 4.125067%Kalshi 67%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.1250
67%
67%
48¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.1250
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1250
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
Above 4.130063.5%63.5%48¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 52s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Above 4.130063.5%Kalshi 63.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1300
63.5%
63.5%
48¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1300
63.5%
Kalshi 63.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1300
- Last price
- 63.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
Show 7 more outcomesHide 7 outcomes
Above 4.145057%57%35¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 52s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Above 4.145057%Kalshi 57%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1450
57%
57%
35¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1450
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1450
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.135056%56%33¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 52s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Above 4.135056%Kalshi 56%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1350
56%
56%
33¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1350
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1350
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.140055.5%55.5%32¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 52s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Above 4.140055.5%Kalshi 55.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1400
55.5%
55.5%
32¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.1400
55.5%
Kalshi 55.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1400
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.150054%54%14¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 52s ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Above 4.150054%Kalshi 54%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Above 4.1500
54%
54%
14¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Above 4.1500
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1500
- Last price
- 54%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 4.155033%33%9¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 52s ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Above 4.155033%Kalshi 33%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 4.1550
33%
33%
9¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Above 4.1550
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1550
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
Above 4.160030%30%7¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 52s ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)Above 4.160030%Kalshi 30%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Above 4.1600
30%
30%
7¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Above 4.1600
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1600
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
Above 4.165026%26%6¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 52s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Above 4.165026%Kalshi 26%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Above 4.1650
26%
26%
6¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Above 4.1650
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.1650
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: AAA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 4.0950
- Above 4.0850
- Above 4.1000
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Florida gas prices tomorrow". Above 4.0950 leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 4.0850 at 95%. $1K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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