The Prediction Markets

Florida Governor: margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$1.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Donalds 0-3% 98.6%

Next is Donalds, 0.5+ pts at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Donalds 0-3%
98.6%
Polymarket 98.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 0-3%
Last price
98.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
97.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 0.5+ pts
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 0.5+ pts
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 1+ pts
94.9%
Kalshi 94.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 1+ pts
Last price
94.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 0-2%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 0-2%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 2+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 2+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 1.5+ pts
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 1.5+ pts
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 12-14%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 12-14%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 3+ pts
1.9%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 3+ pts
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$204K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 3-6%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 3-6%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Byron Donalds, ≥16%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, ≥16%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 28 more outcomes
Byron Donalds, 2-4%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 2-4%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 4-6%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 4-6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 6-8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 6-8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 8-10%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 8-10%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 10-12%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 10-12%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Byron Donalds, 14-16%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byron Donalds, 14-16%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 2.5+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 2.5+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 3.5+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 3.5+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 6-9%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 6-9%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 12-15%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 12-15%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jolly 0-3%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 0-3%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 9-12%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 9-12%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 12+ pts
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 12+ pts
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 4.5+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 4.5+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 5.5+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 5.5+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 5+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 5+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 6+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 6+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$107K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 7+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 7+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 8+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 8+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 9+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 9+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 15+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 15+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 18+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 18+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 18%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 18%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 15-18%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 15-18%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 4+ pts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 4+ pts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 10+ pts
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 10+ pts
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly 6%+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 6%+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jolly 3-6%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 3-6%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Florida Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Donalds 0-3%
  • Donalds, 0.5+ pts
  • Donalds, 1+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Donalds 0-3% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida Governor: margin of victory". Donalds 0-3% leads at 98.6%. Next is Donalds, 0.5+ pts at 95%. $1.3M has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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