The Prediction Markets

French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?

Closes
Mar 13, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

Bruno Retailleau 23.4%

Next is David Lisnard at 16.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Bruno Retailleau 23.4%David Lisnard 16.6%Raphaël Glucksmann 15.9%douard Philippe 13.6%Gabriel Attal 5.4%13 others 25.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bruno Retailleau
23.4%
Polymarket 34.5%(23.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Polymarket
David Lisnard
16.6%
Polymarket 24.5%(16.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
24.5%
Fair, margin removed
16.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphaël Glucksmann
15.9%
Polymarket 23.5%(15.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
23.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Polymarket
douard Philippe
13.6%
Polymarket 20%(13.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Attal
5.4%
Polymarket 8%(5.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominique de Villepin
3.8%
Polymarket 5.6%(3.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
5.6%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabien Roussel
3.4%
Polymarket 5.1%(3.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
5.1%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
François Ruffin
3.4%
Polymarket 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Tondelier
3.3%
Polymarket 4.8%(3.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
4.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
3.2%
Polymarket 4.7%(3.2% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
4.7%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Sarah Knafo
2.4%
Polymarket 3.5%(2.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Polymarket
François Hollande
2%
Polymarket 3%(2% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
1.7%
Polymarket 2.5%(1.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
1.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Le Pen
0.7%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Polymarket
Nathalie Arthaud
0.4%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathalie Arthaud
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Polymarket
ric Zemmour
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Polymarket
François Asselineau
0.3%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Bardella
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bruno Retailleau
  • David Lisnard
  • Raphaël Glucksmann

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?". Bruno Retailleau leads at 23.4%. Next is David Lisnard at 16.6%. $7K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 13, 2027.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. To appear on the ballot, candidates must be presented by at least 500 eligible elected officials (“parrainages”), whose presentations are validated and published by the French Constitutional Council. The deadline for submitting presentations is currently expected to be March 12, 2027, at 6:00 PM local time. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid presentations (parrainages) from elected officials for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to the final tally published by the French Constitutional Council. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If no final tally of valid presentations is published by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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