The Prediction Markets

French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Closes
Apr 18, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$100K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Marine Le Pen 45.5%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 24.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marine Le PenArb
45.5%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 85%polled, just nowKalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$985
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 7420 bps before fees.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
24.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%polled, just nowKalshi 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 41¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 41¢.

Christine Lagarde
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
douard PhilippeArb
15.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$849
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

David Lisnard
13.8%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, just nowKalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Raphaël GlucksmannArb
11.3%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Sébastien Lecornu
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Polymarket
François HollandeArb
6.3%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

Jordan Bardella
6%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Sarah Knafo
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
François RuffinArb
5.2%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$324 (3.24x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

First-round winner
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
First-round winner
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gabriel AttalArb
4%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Dominique de VillepinArb
3.8%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10.2¢ nets 920 bps before fees.

Marine TondelierArb
3.4%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.2¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Bruno RetailleauArb
3%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

ric ZemmourArb
1.5%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 1.3¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Xavier Bertrand
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marine Le Pen on Polymarket at 6.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 81¢ (7420 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel, French Ministry of the Interior
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • Christine Lagarde

Live prices for Marine Le Pen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place". Marine Le Pen leads at 45.5%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 24.5%. $100K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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