The Prediction Markets

French Presidential Election First Round: Mélenchon Vote Share?

Closes
Apr 18, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
15 min ago
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What the markets expect

24%+ 31.5%

Next is 21-24% at 29%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 21 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
24%+
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
24%+
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
21-24%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
21-24%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
18-21%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
18-21%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
12-15%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
12-15%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Polymarket
15-18%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
15-18%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
12%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 21 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
12%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 21 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Polymarket
First-round winner
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 15 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
First-round winner
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 15 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel, French Ministry of the Interior

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 24%+
  • 21-24%
  • 18-21%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 24%+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election First Round: Mélenchon Vote Share?". 24%+ leads at 31.5%. Next is 21-24% at 29%. $11K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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French Presidential Election First Round: Mélenchon Vote Share? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets