The Prediction Markets

French Presidential Election First Round: # of Candidates on Ballot?

Closes
Apr 18, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Marine Le Pen 93%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marine Le Pen
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Nathalie Arthaud
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nathalie Arthaud
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
First-round winner
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$633
Trade this on Kalshi
Raphaël Glucksmann
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
douard Philippe
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
ric Zemmour
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Jean Lassalle
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jean Lassalle
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$914
Trade this on Kalshi
David Lisnard
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
2¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 27 more outcomes
Christine Lagarde
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Xavier Bertrand
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Natacha Polony
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natacha Polony
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Teddy Riner
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Teddy Riner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
13 or more
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
13 or more
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominique de Villepin
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruno Retailleau
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
François Hollande
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
François Ruffin
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Gabriel Attal
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marine Tondelier
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
9
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
9
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
11
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
11
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Polymarket
8
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
8
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket
François Asselineau
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
10
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
10
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Bardella
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Kalshi
12
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
12
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Polymarket
Gérald Darmanin
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Clémentine Autain
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
7
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
7
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernard Cazeneuve
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
First-round winner
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
First-round winner
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jérôme Guedj
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jérôme Guedj
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivier Faure
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Kalshi
Karim Bouamrane
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karim Bouamrane
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
6 or fewer
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
6 or fewer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$373
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel, French Ministry of the Interior

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • Nathalie Arthaud

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Marine Le Pen for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election First Round: # of Candidates on Ballot?". Marine Le Pen leads at 93%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 89%. $41K has traded across 37 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the number of candidates who actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "6 or fewer". Subsequent withdrawals, deaths, or disqualifications of candidates after the publication of the official candidate list will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets