The Prediction Markets

Google search paid clicks change in Q3

Closes
Feb 24, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 8% 99%

Next is Above 9% at 92%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 8%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$679
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10%
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 11%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12%
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, just nowBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12%
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15%
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$890
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 8%
  • Above 9%
  • Above 10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Google search paid clicks change in Q3". Above 8% leads at 99%. Next is Above 9% at 92%. $6K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 24, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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