The Prediction Markets

Guelph, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Leanne Caron 69.8%

Next is Ken Yee Chew at 25.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Leanne Caron 69.8%Ken Yee Chew 25.8%Ryan Meunier 4%Evaristo Ramos Jr. 0.2%John Edward Krusky 0.1%Rajee Sinha 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Leanne Caron
69.8%
Polymarket 69%(69.8% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leanne Caron
Last price
69%
Fair, margin removed
69.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ken Yee Chew
25.8%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ken Yee Chew
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ryan Meunier
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Meunier
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket
Evaristo Ramos Jr.
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evaristo Ramos Jr.
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
John Edward Krusky
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Edward Krusky
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Rajee Sinha
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rajee Sinha
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Leanne Caron
  • Ken Yee Chew
  • Ryan Meunier

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Guelph, ON Mayoral Election Winner". Leanne Caron leads at 69.8%. Next is Ken Yee Chew at 25.8%. $14K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

The 2026 Guelph, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Guelph, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Guelph, Ontario.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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