The Prediction Markets

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election

FinalKickoff
Traded
$312K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Nov 23, 2025. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 161 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Fernando Dias da Costa
55.8%
Polymarket 51.3%(55.8% fair)polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 69.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Dias da Costa
Last price
51.3%
Fair, margin removed
55.8%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
69.1¢
Sell Yes
33.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Polymarket
Siga Batista
26.2%
Polymarket 24.1%(26.2% fair)polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 46.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $216 (2.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Siga Batista
Last price
24.1%
Fair, margin removed
26.2%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
46.3¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$216 (2.16x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
4.6%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
3.1%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mário da Silva Júnior
2.4%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mário da Silva Júnior
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Honório Augusto Lopes
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
José Mário Vaz
1.8%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Mário Vaz
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
1.7%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Fernando Indi
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Fernando Indi
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
João Bernardo Vieira
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
João Bernardo Vieira
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
João de Deus Mendes
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
João de Deus Mendes
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Baciro Djá
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3887 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baciro Djá
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 161 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fernando Dias da Costa
  • Siga Batista
  • Herculano Armando Bequinsa

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election". Fernando Dias da Costa last traded at 55.8%. Next is Siga Batista at 26.2%. $312K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Nov 23, 2025.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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