The Prediction Markets

Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 330K 90%

Next is Above 310K at 89%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 330K
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 370K
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 370K
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 390K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 390K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$517
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 410K
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 410K
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
400K-430K
35.1%
Polymarket 35.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
400K-430K
Last price
35.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 430K
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 430K
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
430K-460K
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
430K-460K
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 450K
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 450K
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
340K-370K
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
340K-370K
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
10.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 490K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 490K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
370K-400K
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
370K-400K
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
490K+
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
490K+
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 470K
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 470K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
460K-490K
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
460K-490K
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
310K
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
310K
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
310K-340K
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
310K-340K
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Hawaii Office of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 330K
  • Above 310K
  • Above 350K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 330K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout". Above 330K leads at 90%. Next is Above 310K at 89%. $27K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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