The Prediction Markets

Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

4%+ 98%

Next is 8%+ at 97.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4%+
98%
Polymarket 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
4%+
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8%+
97.7%
Polymarket 97.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
8%+
Last price
97.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
12%+
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
12%+
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4%+
  • 8%+
  • 12%+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race?". 4%+ leads at 98%. Next is 8%+ at 97.7%. $5K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The third-place candidate in each election is the candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in that election. Aggregated write-in or "scattering" totals that are not attributed to a single named candidate will not be considered a candidate. Elections with fewer than three candidates receiving votes have no third-place candidate. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election, or in the relevant round of the election as defined below. Vote shares will be considered unrounded. For elections that use ranked-choice voting or runoff elections, the relevant vote shares will be those of the first round. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. This market will resolve based on the single highest third-place vote share across all such elections. In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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