The Prediction Markets

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

4.68% 74.5%

Next is 4.75% or above at 70%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
4.68%
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.68%
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75% or above
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5% or above
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.72%
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.72%
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
5.1% or above
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.76%
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.76%
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Polymarket
5.15% or above
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.80%
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.80%
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Polymarket
4.84%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.84%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Polymarket
4.88%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.88%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
4.92%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.92%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Polymarket
5.25% or above
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.97%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.97%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.75% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Kalshi
5.02%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.02%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Polymarket
6% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.68%
  • 4.75% or above
  • 5% or above

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 4.68% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in November?". 4.68% leads at 74.5%. Next is 4.75% or above at 70%. $63K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets