The Prediction Markets

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

4.75% or above 68%

Next is 5.42% at 53.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
4.75% or above
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.42%
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.42%
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
5.73%
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.73%
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
5.69%
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.69%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
5% or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.45%
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.45%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Polymarket
5.49%
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.49%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Polymarket
5.1% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.53%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.53%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
5.15% or above
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
5.57%
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.57%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
5.25% or above
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.61%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.61%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Polymarket
5.65%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.65%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.75% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Kalshi
6% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.75% or above
  • 5.42%
  • 5.73%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 4.75% or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November?". 4.75% or above leads at 68%. Next is 5.42% at 53.5%. $63K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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