The Prediction Markets

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

4.75% or above 68%

Next is 5% or above at 47%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
4.75% or above
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.75% or above
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5% or above
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
5% or above
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.83%
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.83%
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
4.91%
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.91%
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
4.87%
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.87%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Polymarket
4.95%
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.95%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
4.99%
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.99%
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
5.1% or above
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% or above
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.15% or above
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.15% or above
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.25% or above
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.25% or above
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
5.03%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.03%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Polymarket
5.12%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.12%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Polymarket
5.07%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.07%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5% or above
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.5% or above
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.17%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.17%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$363
Trade this on Polymarket
5.75% or above
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.75% or above
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Kalshi
6% or above
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
6% or above
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.75% or above
  • 5% or above
  • 4.83%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 4.75% or above for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in November?". 4.75% or above leads at 68%. Next is 5% or above at 47%. $63K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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