The Prediction Markets

How high will the S&P get by month-end?

Closed
May 30, 2026
Traded
$76K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 7475
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3836 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7475
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7500
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3836 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7500
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7550
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7550
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7525
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7525
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7575
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7575
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7600
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3836 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7600
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 7475
  • Above 7500
  • Above 7550

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.035 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "How high will the S&P get by month-end?". Above 7475 last traded at 99%. Next is Above 7500 at 99%. $76K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 30, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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