The Prediction Markets

How late will Trump be to the Greek Independence Day event?

Closed
Mar 26, 2026
Traded
$51K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 26, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 211 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
20 - 25 minutes
93.6%
Polymarket 92.6%(93.6% fair)polled, 5072 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
20 - 25 minutes
Last price
92.6%
Fair, margin removed
93.6%
As of
Polled 211 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
85.1¢
Volume
$901
Trade this on Polymarket
30 - 35 minutes
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 5072 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
30 - 35 minutes
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 211 d ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
20 minutes
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 5072 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
20 minutes
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 211 d ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 - 30 minutes
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5072 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 - 30 minutes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 211 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
35 - 40 minutes
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5072 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
35 - 40 minutes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 211 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
40+ minutes
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5072 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
40+ minutes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 211 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 20 - 25 minutes
  • 30 - 35 minutes
  • 20 minutes

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "How late will Trump be to the Greek Independence Day event?". 20 - 25 minutes last traded at 93.6%. Next is 30 - 35 minutes at 3.7%. $51K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 26, 2026.

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Greek Independence Day celebration on March 26, 2026, 4PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of minutes past the scheduled start time that Donald Trump begins speaking at his scheduled appearance at the Greek Independence Day celebration. This market will resolve based on when Donald Trump begins speaking. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Greek Independence Day event scheduled for March 26, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If no qualifying event occurs by March 26, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be streamed footage of the relevant event from the official White House YouTube page. (https://www.youtube.com/whitehouse)

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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